Farmer/Pastoralist conflicts expected to increase in frequency
When climate change and growing populations combine forces, pastoralists have a harder and harder time finding viable grazing places their livestock. This is due to erratic rain patterns as well as farming areas encroaching on former grazing grounds. These all too common conflicts may be taking a new turn in the not too distant future.
Sources:CDD May 2010, page 11
The United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a changing world
“UNESCO has introduced ‘water-box’, a conceptual scheme for water management that integrates political, managerial and socials actors, and is aimed at coordinating goals and strategic decisions for sustainable development and the preservation of water resources. The study analyzes a future with more water-related emergencies because climate change is transforming the natural cycle of water.
Sources:FORO April 2010, pg. 5
Participatory mapping projects essential for climate change planning and adapatation
Participatory GIS allows communities to understand and monitor the impact of climate change on local natural resources.
The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy writes,
"Three-dimensional, participatory mapping work is currently taking place in Southeast Asia, through Participatory Avenues’ Integrated Approaches
Sources:LKYSPP Asian Trends Monitoring Bulletin, December 2010, pg 15:
Kairo, J.G.; Kivyatu, B. and N. Koedam. 2002. “Application of Remote Sensing and GIS in the Management of Mangrove Forests Within and Adjacent to Kiunga Marine Protected Area, Lamu, Kenya.” Environment, Development and Sustainability. 4 (2) 153-166.
For more information, visit http://www.iapad.org/index.htm
Localizing information to motivate community action
Panos London supports journalists 'translating' climate change summits for local contexts, helping make climate change information much more actionable for communities.
The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy writes,
Sources:LKYSPP Asian Trends Monitoring Bulletin, December 2010, pg 13:
WWF. 2008. “From Fossil to Future with Innovative ICT Solutions: Increased CO2 Emissions from ICT Needed to Save the Climate.” Technology for Better Business Outcomes, Barcelona, 17-19 March. Available at: http://www.pamlin.net/written/documents/Fossil2Future-WWF-ICT.pdf
Houghton, John. 2009. “ICT and the Environment in Developing Countries: An Overview of Opportunities and Developments.” Communications & Strategies, 1 (76) 39-60.
7. Ospina, Angelica Valeria and Richard Heeks. 2010. “Unveiling the Links Between ICTs & Climate Change in Developing Countries: A Scoping Study.” Centre for Development Informatics, University of Manchester. Available at: http://www.niccd.org/ScopingStudy.pdf
BCO Alliance.2009. “Planting the Knowledge Seed: Adapting to Climate Change Using ICTs.” Eds. Patrick P. Kalas and Alan Finlay. Available at: http://www.bcoalliance.org/Climate-Change
Osterwalder, Alexander. 2007. “ICT in Developing Countries: A Cross-Sectoral Snapshot.” Available at: http://www.hec.unil.ch/aosterwa/Documents/InternetInEmergingMarkets/Publications/ISGLOB03.pdf
Transition to "Modern" Agricultural Infrastructure Leaves Middle-Class Households Vulnerable to Drought
"Middle income households may become more vulnerable to droughts as they transition away from traditional from traditional to modern agricultural
agriculture towards more modern agricultural livelihood strategies -evidence from Malawi and Botswana."
Implications from South Africa Horizon Scan:
Forecasting cholera months in advance by looking at weather data
“Public health officials may be able to forecast cholera outbreaks months in advance by looking at temperature and rainfall data, according to a study. Researchers looked at cholera outbreaks in Zanzibar and found that they correlated with increases in temperature and rainfall. They calculated that a one degree Celsius increase — from 23 to 24 degrees — was followed by a doubling of cholera cases four months later. And a 20 centimetre increase of rainfall resulted in a 1.6 fold increase in cholera cases two months later.
Sources:South Africa Node of the Millenium Project July 2011 pg. 10
As sea level rises, crab aquaculture could replace coastal rice farming
Mud crab aquaculture in Bangladesh has become a new form of alternative livelihood in the coastal region, and as climate change affects coastal arable land and various entities support the fledgling sector, it could prove a remarkable adaptation strategy for the landless poor.
The Strategic Foresight Group writes,
Sources:The Strategic Foresight Group, July 2011 (pg. 8):
Chaki, N. ‘Culture of Mud Crab, Scylla serrata’. Bangladesh Fisheries Information Share Home.
08 February 2011.
‘Bangladesh farmers fatten crabs on polluted land’. Bajan Sun Online. 20 February 2011.
‘Change of life by cultivating crab farming’. Prothom Alo. 02 January 2011.
‘Expansion of Crab Market’. Weekly Sonar Bangla. 06 May 2011.
‘In Satkheera beside, prawn cultivation, crab cultivation is going on too’. Bangladesh Itech News.
‘Improved Crab Fattening Through Cage Culture For Raising Income of Ultra Poor Women’. Satkhira. 04 May 2011.
The future of climate change financing
“There are several financial mechanisms available, most of them have not been explored or implemented yet. Prada (2009) proposed a framework to identify adequate combinations of financial mechanisms for adaptation and mitigation initiatives. The first step consist in assessing up to what extent it is possible to internalize the externalities caused by agents’ GHG emissions. Primarily a mitigation strategy, the objective is to make agents pay for their emissions.
Sources:FORO June 2011 pgs. 6-8
Prada, F. (209), Climate change financing: Developing countries’ options and challenges for mitigation and adaptation, background report for the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS)
ECLAC (2010), Economics of climate change in Latin America. Summary 2010. Santiago de Chile: ECLAC.
Bolivia to lead a unified South American stance on climate change
“So far, South American countries have not acted as a single bloc or consistently as a set of blocs in these [climate change] international negotiations, despite having important common issues, for example, the management of the Amazon basin. Nevertheless, a look at the positions of Bolivia and Brazil, by far the most important regional player, in the major summits sponsored by the United Nations and other parallel processes, reveals emerging possibilities for joint action by South American countries in future processes.
Sources:FORO June 2011 pgs. 4 and 5
Bolivia and Columbia expected to suffer greatly from climate change
“A recent comparison of 233 countries shows that Bolivia and Columbia will be among the twenty most vulnerable countries to climate change in 2015. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a country’s socio-economic dependence on products and services derived from nature; potential impact of extreme weather events o human security; and weak institutional capacity to generate information to prevent climate change impacts, design and manage plans, and mobilize resources to adapt to the new conditions.”
Implications from IFTF:
Sources:FORO June 2011 pgs. 2 and 3
Wheeler, David (2011), “Quantifying vulnerability to climate change: implications for adaptation assistance”, CGD Working Paper 240. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development. http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424759