Kenya Openly Discriminating Against Somalis
We've documented the resource strain of neighboring countries once a nation falls apart as neighbors have to take in refugees and tighten up their borders along with other measures. The effect of a conflict in one's home country on the diaspora is less well documented and potentially more dangerous.
"In Kenya, this has been seen in extra vetting for Somali citizens (for jobs, identity documents, security checks). This officially sanctioned suspicion of its own Somali population has contributed to the tenuous relationship between the State and the Somali population and a lingering suspicion between the Somali and non-Somali components of the population. Such is the situation that the Kenyan government has been sued by human rights groups seeking to overturn a policy that they hold discriminates against indigenous Somalis of Kenyan origin"
Implications by Institute for the Future:
As mentioned in the "Localized Conflict a Thing of the Past" signal, the disenfranchised youth of the Somali diaspora are being used to fuel the Al-Shabaab, which is otherwise loosing steam within Somalia. This means that negative treatment towards Somalis from within the diaspora could in fact be fueling the conflict even more. This could also act as a destabilizing factor within Kenya should push ever come to shove.
Sources:Society for International Development August 2010, pg. 14